Takeaways from AL WC: Skubal, Framber, Witt, and Burnes

A couple of observations from the hitter-pitcher battles that unfolded during the American League Wild Card Round.

1) Tarik Skubal introduces a new wrinkle

For the Tigers to dethrone the vaunted Astros, Tarik Skubal — the presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner — had to set the tone in Game 1. And to dominate, Skubal would have to keep Houston's prolific bats at bay. Namely, that's Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.

Like an increasing number of pitchers, Skubal is a platoon-based hurler. Against left-handed hitters, Skubal, a southpaw, relies predominantly on his sinker, throwing it 56% of the time. The 4-seam fastball, which is Skubal's main offering against right-handed hitters, becomes his fourth choice against lefties.

There's just one problem: Alvarez and Tucker both mash sinkers. Against sinkers from left-handed pitchers, Alvarez posted a .923 SLG and .595 wOBA this season. Tucker, against sinkers in general, has a career .732 SLG and .474 wOBA. On paper, that set up a classic strength-on-strength matchup. And that's what unfolded in the regular season; of the 12 pitches that Skubal threw Alvarez this season, nine of them were sinkers.

But success in the postseason mandates being a step ahead, and Skubal countered first. In the first inning, he pounded Tucker inside with a 98 mph four-seam fastball, inducing a weak ground ball to second base. Then, two batters later, he started Alvarez off with a four-seamer in on his hands. Again, he threw his four-seamer just 8.2% of the time to left-handed hitters in the regular season; that number sank to 2.2% in September. Yet Skubal changed things up, and it worked.

Overall, across six dominant innings, Skubal held Alvarez and Tucker in check, to a 1-for-6 line. The 4-seamer isn't solely responsible — though he did pound Tucker in again in the third inning, coaxing a soft liner to escape a jam. Just by using the 4-seamer early, and establishing it is a potential weapon, Skubal gave the left-handed hitters in Houston's lineup another pitch to think about. Combine that with a velocity bump on all four of his pitches, as well as pinpoint location (for instance, when he pitched Alvaez inside, he made sure it was up and in), and you get a dominant postseason debut for one of the league's best pitchers.

2) Framber Valdez didn't have his curveball

Valdez, opposing Skubal, had to be perfect. The matchup seemed fairly favorable — since Aug. 1, roughly coinciding with their improbable turnaround, the Tigers posted an 82 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Only seven teams fared worse in that stretch.

Except here's the thing: In the second inning, when the Tigers plated three runs to seize the early advantage, Valdez had trouble with his curveball. Spencer Torkelson, behind in the count 0-2, spit on two curveballs and eventually worked a pivotal walk. Jake Rogers balked on a curveball, worked the count to 3-0, and smacked a single on a green light. Matt Vierling laid off two curveballs, got ahead 2-0, and drove in a run with an RBI single.

By Statcast's Run Value, Valdez touts the second-best curveball in baseball, tied with Aaron Nola and Jack Flaherty and trailing only Zac Gallen. It's his swing-and-miss pitch, as well as his put away pitch. And yet, perhaps it's noteworthy that it was less effective in September (27.7 Whiff% and 19.1 Put Away%). It's the lowest single-month Whiff% on Valdez's curveball in any month this season, and the Put Away% is less than it was in the two prior months. Those warning signs reared their head in the fateful second inning, which pushed the Astros season to the brink.

3) Witt bests Burnes, and so Royals best Orioles

You could say that the Royals didn't hit much down the stretch, but that would undersell it: As a team, Kansas City posted a .593 OPS in September, the lowest single-month OPS of any team in the past two seasons. That's a little hard to wrap your head around, especially for a playoff team.

Except, the Royals still have Bobby Witt Jr., which raises the question of how you should pitch to Witt in the postseason. He's not the only guy in the lineup who can beat you — not with Sal Perez lurking, and especially not with Vinnie Pasquantino back from a thumb injury — but it certainly feels that way, and the numbers back it up.

But the Orioles didn't acquire Corbin Burnes in a February blockbuster just for him to work around the opposition's best hitter in a postseason game. So let the fun and games begin.

Witt, notoriously, hits everything. His .423 wOBA against cutters — Burnes's defining pitch — slots in the 84th percentile, yet it's actually Witt's worst wOBA (just barely) against any fastball offering. Entering Tuesday, Witt was 2-for-8 against Burnes, with both hits coming off a pair of nearly identical cutters, ones that hovered in the middle of the plate, at the knees, that Witt went down and scooped.

In the first inning, Burnes dotted a cutter on the outside corner, and Witt slapped it foul. Next, it was Burnes's turn to deploy a wrinkle, just like Skubal did against the Astros. He tossed in a knee-high sweeper for a strike, seizing control of the at bat (Witt would eventually pop up).

Burnes first toyed with his sweeper at the end of last season, but it hardly factored into his arsenal for much of the year. He only throws it to right-handed hitters, and before September, he had thrown six all year — and none in June or July. But he unleashed the pitch again in September, to mixed results: While he held the opposition to a .143 average, he surrendered two home runs off the sweeper. Perhaps more importantly, Witt hadn't seen it.

From then on, Burnes went back to the cutter. In their second face-off, Burnes pounded a couple of cutters in on Witt's hands, sawing him off for another pop up.

The third showdown proved to be the game. With a runner on third base and two outs, Burnes threw a 0-0 cutter on the outside corner, knee-high, similar to where he threw his first cutter of the day to Witt. But this one tugged a little bit more into the plate, and I'd guess Burnes would have liked it more away, but perhaps that's nitpicking. Because this is strength on strength, and every now and then, good hitting can still beat good pitching. Witt pulled it into left field to plate the game's only run, and, really, the Orioles never recovered.