Jake Burger can't stop hitting homers

Since I started writing this piece, Jake Burger has already smashed three more home runs, which seems pretty fitting: No one can keep up with Burger’s torrid second-half pace, player or writer be damned. Since the All-Star Break, the Marlins third baseman is hitting .330/.404/.802 with a league-leading 13 home runs. Entering Wednesday’s game in Philadelphia, Burger has homered in four consecutive games, with six home runs in his last five contests. 

This power surge isn’t totally out of nowhere. Burger, 28, has established himself as a productive major league hitter, with a career OPS of .798. But his 2024 season began on a wretched note. Even with his white-hot stretch, Burger’s OPS+ (108) is still well below his career-average (115). 

How did Burger become — at least temporarily — one of baseball’s elite power bats? Well, let’s start with one possible explanation from Burger himself. 

“I think for me, I was just finding myself,” Burger told MLB.com on August 10th, after hitting his 11th second-half home run against the Padres. “I think July 1st on, I feel like I’ve driven the ball a lot better like I have been in the past, and (I) finally feel like I was fully free from a little oblique thing I had earlier in the year.” 

There’s a lot to unpack here, and we’ll get to all of it, but the crux is clear: Burger is driving the ball significantly better, which is to say he’s hitting the ball harder and further. 

Is Burger hitting the ball harder?	Hard Hit%	Barrel%	Exit Velocity
April	41.3%	13%	89.6 MPH
May	41.8%	6%	90.2 MPH
June	45.3%	12.5%	90.7 MPH
July	54.2%	15.3%	94 MPH
August	64%	24%	97 MPH

In June, Burger’s Hard Hit%, Barrel%, and Exit Velocity all rose above his career-averages for the first time this season. He hasn’t looked back since. And, as Burger’s rising Barrel% foreshadows, Burger is generating better contact, too. 

Is Burger hitting the ball further?	GB%	FB%
April	56.5%	34.8%
May	53.7%	34.3%
June	46.9%	46.9%
July	32.2%	45.8%
August	24%	48%

Again, the complexion of Burger’s season begins to change in June. After hitting an unordinary amount of ground balls in April and May, Burger finally evens his GB-FB ratio in June.

But Burger didn’t reference June 1 as the arbitrary cut-off date for when he began to feel like himself. There’s a reason for that. While Burger started hitting the ball in the air in June, he still wasn’t driving anything. Sixty-one percent of the fly balls that Burger hit in June went to the opposite field; he pulled three fly balls all month. Power hitters aren’t merely pull-happy threats, but pulled fly balls are statistically proven to generate more power and more consistent production. Burger, then, still had a lot of work to do to maximize his strengths.

Even when Burger pulled the ball in the air early in the season, he produced relatively innocuous contact. He seemed to be getting under the baseball too often — his 14.8% IFFB% was well-above the league average. Since July 1, though, Burger’s IFFB% has cratered to a mere 3.7%. Production has followed suit.

Burger Pulled Fly Balls, 2024	Hard Hit%	Launch Angle	Exit Velocity	wOBA
Before July 1st	37.5%	51 degrees	90.7 MPH	.682 wOBA
Since July 1st	58.4%	18 degrees	95.8 MPH	1.310 wOBA

It’s hard not to agree with Burger that his oblique injury impacted his ability to drive the baseball. He missed only three weeks of time, bridging April to May on the Injured List. But, as Burger said, he didn’t fully feel completely healed until July 1. The numbers certainly agree with him.

Let’s check in on another quote from Burger to see what else has gone right across the last month-and-a-half. 

“I’ve always felt like I’m one of the best power hitters in the game,” Burger said on August 11. “Now it’s just swinging at the right pitches and having the right approach and going about it the right way every single day.” 

Has Burger changed his swing decisions? We’ll start with fastballs, which Burger is punishing since the All-Star Break, to the tune of a .497 wOBA in July and a gaudy .660 wOBA in August. Before the ASB, Burger’s wOBA against fastballs was just .329. 

Burger's swings vs. fastballs, pre-July 1st

Burger is actually swinging less often against fastballs: His Swing% vs. fastballs is down to 46.8% in August, at its single-month nadir after dipping for four consecutive months since May. But this shrouds the full story. Because while Burger may be swinging less, he's making better swing decisions, which is to say he's being more economical, swinging against the fastballs he's more likely to do damage with, and spitting on the rest.

Before July 1st, Burger had 10 XBH off fastballs.

Burger's swings vs. fastballs, post-July 1st

Against pitchers not named Lance Lynn, he had just one XBH off a fastball to the pull side. Now, he’s driving elevated fastballs, effortlessly getting his barrel around to high heat.

Sure enough, this is more in line with what we’ve seen from Burger throughout his career: His XBH have predominantly come against fastballs up in the zone, with very few coming off pitches on the inner portion of the plate, where Burger may get jammed or rolled over. Now, he's hammering away at pitches in his wheelhouse.

Burger’s approach to breaking balls has changed in a similar manner. He’s laying off pitches off the plate, while swinging at pitches in the zone. Again, while his overall Swing% is roughly the same on a month-to-month basis, it's the pitches that he is swinging at -- as well as the ones that he isn't -- that makes the difference.

Burger's swings vs. breaking balls, pre-July 1st

We see this specifically with breaking balls in the zone. Since cratering in May, Burger's In-Zone Swing% against breaking balls has steadily increased. Since July 1st, Burger has a .534 wOBA against those pitches — up 150 points from his pre-July 1st numbers. He’s pulling hanging mistakes in the air, rather than rolling them over or popping them up.

As a whole, we see a player making well-informed decisions at the plate, swinging at pitches he's most likely to do damage with. And, now that he's fully healed from a nagging oblique injury, he's able to

Burger's swings vs. breaking balls, post-July 1st

generate consistent power. He's stopped hitting the ball on the ground, cut out weak contact in the air, and is elevating the ball to his pull side with force.

It's worth mentioning again that this isn't out of the blue for Burger. He's a consistent power threat, and, at 28, is in the prime of his career. Which segues us into our next point: Maybe this is sustainable. Sure, he's not going to pace Aaron Judge and lead MLB in home runs. But this is a guy who hit 34 home runs just last season, his first full, healthy year in the big leagues. And he's clearly figured something out in 2024. This could be who Jake Burger is now, one of the game's underappreciate, elite power bats.