Guardians-Tigers notes: Chess matches and cannons

ALDS Game 2 will go down as the Kerry Carpenter Game, and rightfully so: The hard-hitting lefty smacked the game-winning, three-run home run in the ninth inning to stun the Guardians and pen another chapter in this incredible Tigers story.

And while we could talk all day about the Carpenter home run — off one of the best sliders in baseball, which just came in exceptionally flat — I think it's more interesting to explore how we even got to Clase vs. Carpenter, game on the line, in the first place.

Only four hitters have a higher OPS against right-handed pitching this year than Carpenter, and they're each bound to be a top-three MVP finalist: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., and Juan Soto. Carpenter is the biggest threat in a Tigers lineup that lacks punch. But, he doesn't even face left-handed pitching (3-for-28), and so he found himself on the bench in Game 2, with Cleveland rolling out lefty Matt Boyd.

Let's fast forward to the fifth inning, with one out and nobody on in a scoreless game. Boyd, who escaped a jam in the fourth inning, was set to begin his third tour through the batting order, a task that he'd been good at (.527 OPS), albeit in a small sample (22 AB). On the other hand, the perils of facing an order a third time are obvious, Cleveland had an entirely rested bullpen thanks to the off day, and against Skubal, there's no margin for error. Justin-Henry Malloy, the other part of Detroit's DH platoon, stepped in. Malloy has an .893 OPS against LHP, and he already ripped a 100.5 MPH single earlier in the game.

Guardians manager Stephen Vogt had a decision to make: Let Boyd face Malloy a third time in a scoreless game, or bring in relief ace Cade Smith, a move that would almost certainly coax Carpenter off the bench to pinch-hit and stay in the game as the DH.

Smith, the best reliever you've never heard of, is downright nasty. He struck out all four Tigers he faced in Game 1, including Carpenter, on an overpowering three-pitch strikeout featuring whiffs on each of his pitches (4-seam fastball and splitter). He's also tougher against left-handed hitters than right-handed bats (.453 OPS compared to a .591 OPS).

But Vogt stuck with Boyd, a move predicated less so on the Smith-Carpenter matchup than it was on simply limiting Carpenter's plate appearances. In order for Carpenter to stay in the game, he has to bat for Malloy. And the way things were headed, a pitcher's duel unfolding, that could mean a full three innings before Malloy's spot came up again, which, theoretically, could mean just one at bat for Carpenter.

It was a gamble, and I'm not sure what the right answer was: Malloy laced a base hit to right field, but Jhonkensy Noel gunned Malloy down at second base (more on that later), and Vogt climbed out of the dugout to yank Boyd before he could face another batter. As for Carpenter, he entered the game leading off the eighth, pinch hitting for Malloy against right-handed reliever Hunter Gaddis.

And if you're a Guardians fan, of the many things you're lamenting the day after a gut punch of a 3-0 loss, everything centers around Carpenter. You can dwell on the pitch selection (three straight sliders) and wonder if Clase lost confidence in his cutter. But, with one less plate appearance somewhere along the line, Carpenter doesn't even get to the plate with that spot. What if Tim Herrin doesn't lose the zone in a five-pitch walk (featuring a 3-1 curveball) against Jake Rogers (he of a 6.5 BB%) in the seventh inning? Or, what if Cleveland doesn't intentionally walk Riley Greene with two outs and a man on second in the eighth inning? Or, maybe most pertinently, what if all-world closer Emmanuel Clase hadn't surrendered back-to-back hits off his all-world cutter against Rogers and Trey Sweeney in the ninth inning?

Or, what if Malloy hadn't even hit leadoff? In Game 1 against the Astros in the AL WC Round, facing lefty Framber Valdez, Malloy hit second, behind leadoff hitter Matt Vierling. Hinch swapped the two in the order on Monday, and that made the difference in getting Carpenter to the plate in the ninth inning.

Jhonkensy Noel... again?

Noel, a hulking 6-foot-3 and 250-pounds, makes for a surprisingly agile right fielder, perhaps in part because of his background as a third baseman. While his range is subpar (-2 OAA), his arm strength is well above average (88.3 MPH, 76th percentile). That was on full display in the fifth inning, when Noel unleashed a cannon to nail Malloy at second base.

A couple of things here.

First, well, it was the second time in as many plate appearances that Malloy tested Noel. Earlier, Malloy stood on second base, with two runners on and one out. On a fly ball to right field, Malloy tagged and advanced to third base, rather easily. Except Noel's throw rifled into third base, and while it wasn't a close play, it wasn't as comfortable as it should have been, either.

Which leads us to our next point: I'm not exactly sure what the Tigers scouting report on Noel is. He only threw out two batters in the regular season (though both were in the final month), and one occurred in a near-identical play as what transpired on Tuesday! Noel ranges far to his left, cuts a ball off, pivots, twirls, and fires in an accurate strike to second. Again, for a large human being, Noel moves in sync. Malloy's hit sent Noel slightly deeper into the corner, but he in turn got more on the throw, compensating for the ground given.

I get wanting to push the envelope in a scoreless game — especially when you feel pretty good about winning the game with just one run — and forcing a perfect throw. But Noel has shown himself plenty capable before, and with a strong scouting report, Malloy probably holds at first base. And again, when your goal late in the game is to get Carpenter to the plate, you don't want to run into an out on the bases.

Hello, Steven Kwan

Everyone wants to talk about Kwan's catch (yes, it was a catch), but I was equally impressed with Kwan's at bat in the sixth inning.

After a magnificent first half (.920 OPS), Kwan fell off a cliff after the All-Star Break (.618 OPS), and the Guardians offense sagged with him. In many ways, he makes them go.

So, facing the indomitable Tarik Skubal for a third time on Monday, with a runner on second and one out, Kwan dug in. He fell behind 0-2, taking a pair of sinkers in the zone. Now this is where things got real interesting.

First, in somewhat of a small miracle, Kwan got a piece of a nasty changeup that Skubal spiked to the plate. While he didn't quite foul it off a bounce like Francisco Lindor did against Jeff Hoffman on Saturday, the approach was borne from the same principles: A good hitter scrapping and clawing his way back into the at bat against an All-Star pitcher.

Facing left-handed pitching, Kwan is much better against fastballs (.511 wOBA) and sinkers (.439 wOBA) than he is against changeups (.147 wOBA). So, even though Skubal stays away from his changeup against LHB (13% usage), he threw Kwan four changeups after jumping ahead 0-2. Kwan either fouled them off or spit on them. Ultimately, on the ninth pitch of the at bat, Skubal went to his 4-seam fastball, which, again, is a pitch he hardly throws against LHB. But Kwan forced Skubal to empty the kitchen sink, and Kwan went with the pitch, shooting an outside fastball into left field for a base hit.

That turned out to be the watershed mark for the Guardians, as David Fry would bounce into an inning-ending double play (the second induced by Skubal), and Cleveland never came closer to scoring.