Awaiting Adley Rutschman's next move

The Baltimore Orioles are limping into October, saddled by an injury-riddled pitching staff and an underwhelming offense. And Adley Rutschman — the 26-year-old switch-hitting catcher, a former No. 1 overall pick largely synonymous with Baltimore’s franchise turnaround — is emerging as a main culprit. 

Since the All-Star Break, Rutschman has a 75 wRC+, the 16th-worst mark among qualified hitters. He’s lost all his power, running a .311 SLG and .104 ISO. And only Sal Frelick, Jacob Young, and Nico Hoerner — a trio of glove-first utility players — are making hard contact less often than Rutschman, whose Hard Hit% has plunged to a mere 21.7% in the second half. 

Rutschman’s season has unfolded like a boxing match, with hitter and pitcher trading jabs. Right now, it’s the pitcher touting the upper-hand. 

To start the year, Rutschman adopted an entirely new approach. Patience and selectivity have defined his baseball career. But Rutschman began 2024 by swinging — and chasing — at far higher rates than he had in the past. This was calculated. Pitchers were throwing Rutschman more pitches in the zone than ever before, and Rutschman jumped the gun on their counter. Despite slashing his walk rate and increasing his strikeout rate, he found success, running a .353 wOBA into July. 

It took the league a while to catch on, but pitchers have finally countered back: Since July, Rutschman’s In-Zone% has dropped steadily, especially among pitches he tends to crush. 

Let’s start with Rutschman as a left-handed hitter which, historically, has been his stronger side. He’s seeing a healthy diet of 4-seam fastballs — 20% more than any other pitch — but while he thrived on 4-seamers earlier in the season (including a .383 wOBA in May), his production has dipped ever since. There are a couple of disconcerting trends here, too. 

Rutschman as a LHB vs. 4-seam fastballs, before and after July 1st. 

• Whiff% — 21.5% vs. 9.6% 

• Launch Angle — 26 degrees vs. 38 degrees

• Exit Velocity — 93 MPH vs. 87.7 MPH

Rutschman as a LHB vs. 95 MPH+, before and after July 1st. 

• wOBA — .272 wOBA vs. .156 wOBA

So, while Rutschman is making more contact against 4-seamers, he’s hitting them softer (by 5.3 MPH) and higher (by 12 degrees), leading to an alarming IFFB%. He’s swinging roughly as often as he was in the first half, but the intent behind his swing has shifted, an approach that renders the additional contact moot. 

Just look at Rutschman’s Blast Rate — the rate at which a hitter squares up a ball with a fast bat — which has been cut in half (14.2% to 7.2%). He’s not missing fastballs, which appears to be his goal. But he’s not swinging as hard (69 MPH from 69.5 MPH), and the contact is exceptionally poor. It’s not the contact that Rutschman should want more of, yet that’s what’s happening. 

As a right-handed hitter, Rutschman isn’t just struggling against fastballs; he’s not getting any to hit, either. An overlay of Rutschman’s In-Zone% and Swing% by month shows us that, as a RHB, he’s swinging less often while receiving fewer pitches to mash — and while his BB% has spiked, he’s paid for his lack of aggression. 

Rutschman ran a .653 wOBA against fastballs into July. In ten weeks since, he has a .270 wOBA with just three hits off fastballs. And while the overall percentage of fastballs thrown to Rutschman hasn’t changed much —  he saw as many fastballs in August (.270 wOBA) as he did in May (.520 wOBA) — the location of the pitches has. Pitchers are attacking Rutschman with intent, rather than merely getting fastballs over for strikes. They’re concentrated on the outer half of the plate, which is the only place Rutschman didn’t have success against fastballs in the first half. His success occurred against 4-seamers in and over the plate, as a high-ball hitter. The league has adjusted. 

Rutschman as a RHB, before and after July 1st. 

• Bat Speed: 69 MPH vs. 68 MPH

• Fast Swing Rate: 5.6% vs. 0%

• Blasts: 12.9% vs. 5.3%

Rutschman’s bat speed metrics are even more concerning as a right-handed hitter. There’s a marked difference in success generated by fast swings vs. non-fast swings, as well as blasts vs. non-blasts. Rutschman has yet to have a fast swing as a right-handed hitter since July 1st, and his blast rate has dropped by over 7%. That helps explain why he’s not hitting the ball hard: His only batted-ball with an EV > 99 MPH in the last ten weeks was a routine ground ball to shortstop. It also explains why he’s late on velocity, leading to more of this, as opposed to this — we can see pretty easily that Rutschman jumps out in front of Hall’s fastball and is able to drive it, while Puk’s offering beats Rutschman, and he gets jammed just enough up the bat. As far as his swing, everything looks a little more fluid earlier in the season. 

I want to circle back to an article that Davy Andrews wrote for FanGraphs in May, in which he offered a nuanced exploration of Rutschman’s newfound approach. Andrews wrote, “You have to imagine that at some point, opposing pitchers are going to notice. Either Rutschman will start laying off those breaking pitches or they’ll make him pay for all that aggression.” 

And guess what? Rutschman learned to lay off. His Chase% from both sides of the plate is down from early-season peaks in April and May, again resembling the old Rutschman. But the boxing match didn’t stop, and the league countered Rutschman’s move. Pitchers jabbed back, eliminating any sort of offering in Rutschman’s wheelhouse. Now, even when he is aggressive — and he’s aggressive far less often — Rutschman isn’t producing the results we’ve grown accustomed to. 

I don’t think Rutschman will struggle like this forever. The 4-seam fastball has been his bread and butter,  in both 2023 (RV = 15) and 2022 (RV = 10). He’s running a .221 BABIP since the All-Star Break, and while that doesn’t seem sustainable, neither did his pre-ASB BABIP, so it may just be an overdue regression to the mean. The true Rutschman likely lies somewhere between those two BABIPs. He’s shown an ability to adjust — in the offseason, and midseason — and while he doesn’t want to talk about his slump, the safe assumption is that the next adjustment is in the works. He’ll have to figure out how to hit the outside fastball as a right-handed hitter, and find the swing that can catch up to velocity — while being just aggressive enough — as a left-handed hitter. Still just a third-year pro, Rutschman is searching for that ideal balance.